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China has already committed to lowering the carbon intensity of its economy: it has promised to reduce the emissions associated with every generated dollar of GDP by 45 per cent between 2005 and 2020. But that won't halt its soaring emissions, and its carbon intensity will still be more than double that in the US and Europe.
Now, Chinese media are reporting that the National Development and Reform Commission wants caps on total emissions from 2016, with a peak a decade later. The plan has yet to be formally approved, but follows the introduction of caps and trial emission-trading schemes in seven provinces.
If the plan is approved, it should boost stalled international talks on fighting climate change. Global emissions need to peak in the early 2020s and then start falling to give us a 50:50 chance of avoiding 2?°C of warming – the accepted threshold for dangerous climate change.
Ajay Gambhir of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change in London has modelled the impact that changing energy technologies will have on China's emissions.
"Peaking emissions by 2025 would require a concerted shift away from coal and towards nuclear, wind and solar power," he says, adding that China's emissions might increase by 15 to 20 per cent before they peak.
This article appeared in print under the headline "China's peak carbon plans"